A prolonged period of slowing home price growth has finally led to a national level stall-out, according to one prominent real estate economist.
“Home price growth has been slowing every month for the past 12 months, with the exception of October 2025,” Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said Tuesday in a statement. “In February, more than half of the major U.S. metros posted year-over-year price declines.”
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Lisa Sturtevant
Sturtevant’s conclusion: “Home price growth at the national level has stalled.”
Sturtevant was responding to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, out Tuesday. The index rose just 0.7 percent year over year in February, which is down from a 0.8 percent increase the previous month. In a report on the latest index on Tuesday, S&P Global noted that “more than half of major U.S. metropolitan markets posted year-over-year price declines in February.”
Denver was the nation’s weakest market in February, with home prices in the Colorado metro falling 2.2 percent. The report also noted that Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., joined “the list of decliners.”
The report also noted that, for the ninth straight month, inflation outpaced home price growth in February.
Though the index paints a picture of a challenged housing market — at least for prospective homesellers — Sturtevant found some silver linings. In her statement, she noted that “some markets are still showing strong home price growth” even as others decline. Inventory is the key.
“Many markets in the Northeast and Midwest where inventory is constrained continue to post price growth,” Sturtevant explained. “Alternatively, markets where inventory has surpassed pre-pandemic levels are seeing downward pressure on prices.”
Sturtevant also pointed to the “equity cushion” enjoyed by many of today’s homeowners, meaning that even if they “may want to sell, they do not have to sell. This phenomenon will keep inventory relatively low and keep prices relatively resilient.”
In other words, Sturtevant does not see a major crash on the horizon.
“Despite the pull back in price appreciation,” Sturtevant added, “there are no signals that we are headed for a major drop in home prices. In the current market, there are relatively few ‘forced sellers’ who need to get out at any price. Instead, we have a market where sellers are cutting asking prices modestly to attract buyers. Or they are taking their home off the market when they do not get the price they want.”
