For years, the ultra-low mortgage rates that consumers secured during the pandemic housing boom have cast a pall on the real estate transaction environment.
That may finally be changing.
An Intel review of the latest results of the Inman-Dig Insights consumer survey reveals that homeowners this spring are more likely than a year ago to say they’re looking to buy again soon — even if it involves giving up a prized pandemic-era rate in the process.
This shift partly reflects changes in economic uncertainty. Some consumer groups reacted more strongly to last year’s April tariff announcements than to this year’s rattling of energy markets due to the war in Iran.
But a deeper review of the survey data reveals that the effect of a homeowner’s existing mortgage rate on their likelihood to list may be weakening as well. And that may have implications for the summer and the year ahead once the war draws to a close.
Read the full analysis in this week’s report.
The lock-in effect eases
The Inman-Dig Insights consumer survey conducted earlier this month presents some of the clearest signs yet that the rate lock-in effect had eased substantially from the previous spring.
The survey of 3,000 employed U.S. adults reveals that homeowners in particular are more likely to say they’re open to a home purchase this month than they were at the same point last year.
Chart by Daniel Houston
As seen above, homeowners in early April felt more financially ready to buy across the board than they did at the same point last year. This year-over-year shift was especially large for households that earned $100,000 a year or more.
Even more striking than the improvement in financial readiness is the increase in the stated interest in buying a home that homeowners across income groups expressed from April 2025 to April 2026.
When Intel surveyed consumers in April last year, it was mere days after the Trump administration announced a sweeping array of higher tariffs on imported goods. The uncertainty surrounding these changes sent markets into a tailspin from which it took weeks to recover. Consumers in higher income brackets, who are more likely to own stocks and other assets, were particularly exposed to these swings.
But further analysis of the survey data reveals that these shifts are about more than just changes in economic uncertainty.
Homeowners with mortgages were likelier in April than they were a year ago to say they were interested in buying a home, even after accounting for the rate on their current loan.
It’s a clear sign of the real — though weakening — grip of the mortgage rate lock-in effect on today’s depressed transaction environment.
- Of the homeowners with a mortgage who say they’re “very likely” to buy in the next 12 months, only 27 percent have a rate below the 4 percent mark on their existing loan.
- By contrast, 45 percent of homeowners with a mortgage who said they were “very unlikely” to buy this year were sitting on a rate below 4 percent.
Instead, the likeliest buyers currently sit in a sweet spot of rates ranging from 4 percent to 6 percent.
- Of homeowners with mortgages who were “very likely” to buy, 52 percent had rates in that 4 percent to 6 percent range.
- Of the group who were “very unlikely” to buy, only 29 percent had a rate within that same striking distance of today’s rates.
Groups with mortgage rates higher than 6 percent weren’t much more likely than other groups to say they would buy soon, potentially an indicator of how recently they moved into their current home.
But even though there still exists a fairly substantial incentive for many homeowners to hold onto their favorable rate, there continue to be signs that the lock-in effect is weakening over time.
This is especially visible at the extreme low end of the rate spectrum, where the intentions of the likeliest buyers and those most resistant to entering the market are gradually converging.
- In April, there was a 15 percentage point gap between the share of homeowners with mortgages who were “very unlikely” to buy and those who were “very likely to buy” in the sub-3.5-percent rate cohort — those who primarily bought or refinanced during the ultra-low-rate pandemic housing frenzy.
- That’s a big gap, but it’s still smaller than the 20-point difference recorded between the same two groups in April 2025.
The overall takeaway? The rate lock-in effect remains real, but has never been an absolute barrier to moving for those with low rates. And over time, it’s becoming less and less of a holdup.
It’s these dynamics that may support continued growth in home transactions through the summer, especially if uncertainty around rates resolves in consumers’ favor.
About the Inman-Dig Insights Consumer Survey
The Inman-Dig Insights consumer survey was conducted from April 10-11 to gauge the opinions and behaviors of Americans related to homebuying.
The survey sampled a diverse group of 3,000 American adults, who ranged in age from 24 to 65 and were employed either full-time or part-time. The participants were selected to produce a broadly representative breakdown by gender and region.
Statistical rigor was maintained throughout the study, and the results should be largely representative of attitudes held by U.S. adults with full- or part-time jobs. Both Inman and Dig Insights are majority-owned by Toronto-based Beringer Capital.
