Will Global Upheaval Tank The Spring Market? The Download

Find out how the war in Iran, fuel shortages and other international uncertainty will affect the spring real estate market.

After years of slow real estate markets and multiple spring surprises (the bad kind), you may have been crossing your fingers and toes in hopes for an active spring market this year, especially with interest rates finally coming down. You’re not alone, because the National Association of Realtors was predicting a double-digit improvement in this year’s pace of home sales.

Now, however, it looks like global upheaval is poised to put a damper on this year’s transactions as well.

NAR thought home sales would spike this year. Not anymore, thanks to volatile mortgage rates by Taylor Anderson

As 2026 approached, NAR’s Lawrence Yun was looking forward to a 14 percent lift in home sales during the year. Now, however, he’s revising his estimate downward.

“That [estimate] will be changed,” Yun said. “We are still working on it, but it’s going to be revised down just because the mortgage rate from the oil price shock has pushed up above what I anticipated it to be. We were at 6 percent mortgage rates maybe for five minutes before the war began.”

READ: Iran war, high rates chill pending home sales

Don’t miss the interactive timeline chart in this story showing how world events have contributed to rate fluctuations throughout the year thus far.

While you can’t control the big shifts in international markets and economic conditions, you can control the way you respond to market realities closer to home. Find out how to maximize every conversation and take advantage of every opportunity with spring market strategies from Inman’s contributors.