After some signs of momentum earlier this year, mortgage applications just experienced a bumpy stretch, falling 10.9 percent.
That’s according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The data specifically shows that the MBA’s Market Composite Index — which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume — dipped 10.9 percent last week compared to the week prior on a seasonally adjusted basis. On top of that, the MBA’s Refinance Index fell 19 percent week over week, though it was up 69 percent compared to a year earlier.
MBA Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan pointed to “the conflict in the Middle East” and elevated oil prices, as well as “the risk of a broader inflationary shock,” as factors impacting the mortgage market.
Joel Kan
“Mortgage rates increased across the board, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.30 percent, the highest rate since December 2025,” Kan continued in a statement. “Rates were around 20 basis points higher than they were two weeks ago and this caused a reversal in refinance activity, particularly for conventional refinance applications, which decreased 27 percent over the week. Government refinances also declined but by 5 percent, as FHA rates have not increased quite as rapidly.”
The MBA’s data further shows that average mortgage rates for 30-year loans rose from 6.19 percent to 6.30 percent last week. For 15-year loans, average rates rose from 5.54 percent to 5.66 percent.
News of rising rates and dipping mortgage applications will likely come as a blow to real estate professionals who had been banking on the spring buying season to reverse years of market sluggishness. And indeed, initially it looked like the spring season would deliver as rates fell.
Jeff Tucker
However, recent weeks have seen growing uncertainty thanks in large part to the war in Iran. Speaking to Inman last week, Windermere Principal Economist Jeff Tucker said “we kind of had a good thing going there for about a week, and now those stars aren’t aligned.” But he did also offer some hope.
“But we’re early in the spring homebuying season. There’s still the chance these impacts could be limited,” Tucker said, referring to the Iran war, “depending on how quickly this gets resolved.”
