Mortgage rates have stabilized, and more inventory is coming online, but homebuyers continue to have the jitters about the economy and the job market, according to a weekly lender survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
The MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey showed applications for purchase loans were down by a seasonally adjusted 6 percent last week compared to the week before, but up 17 percent from a year ago.
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Applications for conventional, FHA, and VA purchase loans fell despite slowing home-price growth and increasing levels of for-sale inventory in many regions, MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan said in a statement.
Joel Kan
“Mortgage applications fell to their lowest level since May, with both purchase and refinance activity declining over the week,” Kan said. “There is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding the economy and job market, which is weighing on prospective homebuyers.”
Although the latest readings on consumer confidence suggest that would-be homebuyers may be getting less fearful that tariffs will tank the economy, many are still concerned about the prospect of higher prices and the cooling job market, surveys show.
The National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday that pending home sales were down 2.8 percent from a year ago in June, despite more homes being listed for sale.
The West saw the biggest annual decline in pending sales (7.3 percent), with smaller drops in the South (2.9 percent) and Midwest (0.9 percent).
Pending home sales were up 2.1 percent from May to June in the Northeast, but unchanged from a year ago.
Lisa Sturtevant
“The June pending home sales data provides further evidence of a stuck housing market, increasing the likelihood that we will end the year with fewer transactions than last year’s 30-year low,” Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant told Inman.
The latest forecasts from economists at Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association project existing home sales will grow by just 3 percent this year, before accelerating in 2026 as mortgage rates come down and home price appreciation cools and prices come down in some markets.
Since hitting a 2025 low of 6.48 percent on April 4, rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have been stuck in the high 6 percent range, as Federal Reserve policymakers and investors who fund most home loans wait to see how the Trump administration’s trade policies will impact the economy.
Mortgage rates remain rangebound
At 6.73 percent Tuesday, rates on 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgages are down 32 basis points from a 2025 high of 7.05 percent registered on Jan. 14, according to rate lock data tracked by Optimal Blue.
Resisting pressure from the Trump administration, the Fed on Wednesday voted 9-2 to leave the short-term federal funds rate at its target range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, where it’s been since December.
Although Trump and other administration officials have blamed Fed Chair Jerome Powell for elevated mortgage rates, they’re largely determined by investor demand for mortgage backed securities.
When the Fed cut the short-term federal funds rate by a full percentage point over three months at the end of last year, mortgage rates increased by an equal amount after economic reports suggested inflation was on the rebound.
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